Long Range Spaghetti Plots For Hurricane Irma

Ladies and gentlemen, we proudly present the long-range spaghetti plots for Hurricane Irma. Irma looks to be no joke, she went from a wave to a storm to a hurricane in 24 hours. She will be a major hurricane later today, and has nothing to do but strengthen before she says how-do-you-do to the Leeward Islands.

Where she goes after that is anybody's guess. There are a lot of people guessing, and they are where the spaghetti plots come from.

Please note that these are not forecasts... or, as my friend Jenn says, "THESE LINES ARE NOT A FORECAST!" They are an educated guess- made by professionals, but a guess nonetheless.

Things that will greatly determine the track of the storm haven't happened yet. I can't say that the people making up these plots have no idea what will happen, but just that they are making the guess with the information that they have. Tomorrow or Saturday, they may have a whole other set of spaghetti plots.

Notice that the possible outcomes run the gamut from "New Orleans landfall" to "Cape Cod direct hit" to "passes out to sea east of Bermuda." That's a pretty broad forecast. It's akin to saying "The Red Sox will win, lose or get rained out." Try that with your bookie...

Also note that the green blotch emerging from Houston is the former Hurricane Harvey, and the blue-red-blue-green one in the upper mid-Atlantic is the storm from Tuesday night.

If the map frightens you, look at it this way... there have to be 25-40 forecast plots in that graphic, and maybe 5 of them are drawn in a way that puts a whuppin' on New England. That's a 12-20% chance of trouble, and even that is wildly "optimistic." In reality, the chance is more like 5%, maybe less. It's a big ocean.

We'll be back with an update- perhaps several- as the storm figures out where it wants to go. As a parting gift, we'll give you the official National Hurricane Center's forecast track.

One of our authors- Stephen- thinks that he can tell which storms will hit us by the name it is assigned. He has weak hope for Katia, better hope for Lee, genuine fear for Maria... then were off the hook until Ophelia and Tammy form.