Ladies and gentlemen, we proudly present the long-range spaghetti plots for Hurricane Irma. Irma looks to be no joke, she went from a wave to a storm to a hurricane in 24 hours. She will be a major hurricane later today, and has nothing to do but strengthen before she says how-do-you-do to the Leeward Islands.
Where she goes after that is anybody's guess. There are a lot of people guessing, and they are where the spaghetti plots come from.
Please note that these are not forecasts... or, as my friend Jenn says, "THESE LINES ARE NOT A FORECAST!" They are an educated guess- made by professionals, but a guess nonetheless.
Things that will greatly determine the track of the storm haven't happened yet. I can't say that the people making up these plots have no idea what will happen, but just that they are making the guess with the information that they have. Tomorrow or Saturday, they may have a whole other set of spaghetti plots.
Notice that the possible outcomes run the gamut from "New Orleans landfall" to "Cape Cod direct hit" to "passes out to sea east of Bermuda." That's a pretty broad forecast. It's akin to saying "The Red Sox will win, lose or get rained out." Try that with your bookie...
Also note that the green blotch emerging from Houston is the former Hurricane Harvey, and the blue-red-blue-green one in the upper mid-Atlantic is the storm from Tuesday night.
If the map frightens you, look at it this way... there have to be 25-40 forecast plots in that graphic, and maybe 5 of them are drawn in a way that puts a whuppin' on New England. That's a 12-20% chance of trouble, and even that is wildly "optimistic." In reality, the chance is more like 5%, maybe less. It's a big ocean.
We'll be back with an update- perhaps several- as the storm figures out where it wants to go. As a parting gift, we'll give you the official National Hurricane Center's forecast track.
One of our authors- Stephen- thinks that he can tell which storms will hit us by the name it is assigned. He has weak hope for Katia, better hope for Lee, genuine fear for Maria... then were off the hook until Ophelia and Tammy form.
Thursday, August 31, 2017
Harboring: Hyannis Port
Hyannis Port gets the duke today in our Harboring series. |
Hyannis Port has a big rep, but a small harbor. HP only has 115 residents, so Proportion enters the equation. |
I was kind of hoping for more Sea Cadillac-type boats. |
Wealhy people tend to have more of a sailboat harbor than a Fairhaven-like working harbor. There weren't many tuna boats |
I was expecting more than one pier. Subtlety is good, but I'm not expecting it from Hyannis Port. At least one Kennedy should own a Superyacht. |
They probably pulled the boat this high up to keep it from the tide... but it is fun to imagine that some Kennedy whelp made a navigational error and just walked home after. |
Thanks for having us, Hyannis Port! |
Wednesday, August 30, 2017
South Coast Surf Check, 8/30/17
There's a storm offshore, and our business had us on the South Coast today... so why not check out the surf, so you don't have to? |
... but nothing terrible. The storm curved more East than Northeast, and her effects were somewhat lessened around here. I'm pretty sure that there's still a High Surf Advisory for south and east facing beaches. Bourne has a warning, Plymouth doesn't. |
Hoppy's Marina was a bit blue, but otherwise calm. The storm that sent me out today will be hitting Atlantic Canada by the time you read this. If you want the big storm, your best bet is Tropical Storm Irma, which is SE of the Cape Verde Islands. Harvey may also rain on us, but nothing like in Texas. |
We then rolled the dice on Horseneck Beach in Westport, which was also pretty calm. |
Nothing says "end of summer" like a vacant lifeguard chair on a grey-sky beach, huh? |
Horseneck Beach has her curves, just like any other lady. The sea favors some spots of a beach with better surf. We walked down a half mile and seas were more camera-friendly. |
The little dot between the building and the chair is a very patient surfer. |
This was probably the best wave I saw today. |
My man, honing some skills, taking what he can get... |
Cowabunga! |
Gooseberry Island, also in Westport, was more wind friendly, but the storm was moving away quickly and it was time to go to the presses. |
Monday, August 28, 2017
Will A Shark Culling Work? Do We Need It?
"Civilization ends at the waterline... after that, we all enter the food chain, and not always right at the top." |
Barnstable County Commissioner Ron Beaty has put a "shark hazard mitigation strategy" on the table after a series of shark interactions on the Outer Cape. These how-d-you-do's between sharks and humans ran the gamut from "A Fisherman Saw One" to "One Ate A Seal 20 Yards Off Of A Busy Beach" to "One Attacked A Surfboard With A Surfer Still On It."
Beaty has proposed lining the more popular Cape beaches with baited drum lines. These lines will have a big ol' shark-catching hook in them, the shark will either drown or have to be gun-shot and the desired end result will be the death of the offending shark.
This plan is soaked in controversy, and will require Ally Raisman levels of Moral Gymnastics.
Cape Cod, as we often mention here, has her pros and cons. As is often the case in life, the good comes with the bad at times. You can adopt an entirely beachnik lifestyle if you wish, but you're going to lose years of your life stuck in traffic. You will have the best view of the sunrise in Massachusetts, but you may also end up in the tummy of a Volvo-sized apex predator.
Can't win 'em all, right?
Wychmere |
Becoming the lunch of some greater being is a bad thing to be thinking about, and doing so will definitely dampen your enjoyment of Cape Cod's many fine beaches. The best defense is to go with the numbers. Chew on this, if you will...
-Sharks have killed three people in Massachusetts since the Other Man arrived in 1620. The last one was in the 1930s.
- None of these attacks were on Cape Cod. Only one (Mattapoisett) happened near the shore, and the Scituate and Swampscott/Boston fatalities happened rather far offshore. You are more likely to have your boat attacked and be devoured than you are to suffer a Samuel L. style direct snatching from the shallow water.
- Cape Cod has only had 3 attacks in her recent history, and one of them was weak enough that the victim was originally thought to have tangled with a bluefish or a particularly capable lobster. Another of these attacks harmed only a surfboard.
- Cape Cod's population goes up to 400,000 every summer, and 200,000 of that number are people who came for the direct purpose of swimming. Surfcasting is our national sport, if a Cape can have a national sport. We've had great periods of time where "fisherman" was the main job in town. We've never had anyone get sharked to death on Cape Cod, and nothing I read speaks of indigenous, Wampanoag/Algonquian shark attacks.
- If you count non-lethal attacks in Massachusetts, you get about a dozen. Some of these attacks were spurious, such as "a hammerhead bumped into my boat while I was reeling in a tuna."
- You are 132 times more likely to drown at a beach than to be killed by a shark. You are 75 times more likely to be killed by lightning. You are 290 times more likely to be killed by a boat. You are 45 times more likely to be killed by a riptide. You are 1.6 times more likely to be swallowed up by a sand sinkhole- which, to be fair, may be a worse way to go.
- If you're female, you're more likely to be killed by a Kennedy crashing a vehicle into a Martha's Vineyard body of water. No women have been killed by a shark in Massachusetts' recorded history. Two, to my knowledge, were in a kayak a shark sampled a few years back in Manomet.
- Depending on the year studied, you are more likely to be bitten by a lab rat, a blue jay, a ferret, a gerbil, a parrot, a skunk, a raccoon... Shoot, you are 100 times more likely to be bitten by a human than a shark.
- Most sharks, Great Whites included, feed on a single item, Our sharks like seals, which is why the arrival of the sharks closely followed the arrival of the seals. Humans, even chubby ones, aren't fatty enough (in other words, we're too crunchy) for a shark's tastes. We are most likely also not salty enough to be shark food. An attack on a human is almost always a shark mistaking the human for a seal or a squid.
- We'd need 394 fatal shark attacks this summer to average one a year since the Mayflower arrived.
Duxbury Beach |
So, it isn't like this is a pressing issue or anything. Why the shark cull, then?
Cape Cod is a beach, a big long one with water on both sides of it. Beach life draws in the tourists. Cape Cod depends on those tourists for her economic well-being. If sharks start gobbling swimmers, no one will come here.
It's basically the arguments posed by Quint and Mayor Vaughn in Jaws. We're a summer town. We need summer dollars, or we'll be on the welfare all winter. If someone says "Barracuda," no one will care. If we turn up on CNN or YouTube in the form of a shark attack video, we may as well be Iowa for all the beach tourism we'll get afterwards.
Farewell and adieu, to you fair Spanish ladies...
Don't get me wrong. It's very sad and tragic when someone dies in a car wreck or if they get the Die Slow or whatever... but a slip-n-fall in the tub isn't going to scare away 200,000 tourists every summer, and a shark attack will.
Chatham Harbor |
Will the Beaty plan work?
There's a lot to hate about it. For starters, it is incomplete. It won't kill every shark. You only need one shark to slip by, and we get all that Amity Island negativity. So, right off the bat, the plan blows like the mighty North wind.
Anyone who has shark-fished for sport or profit will tell you that sharks- and fish in general- can be finicky. They may have no interest at all in whatever bait is being offered. As they are sort of up here to eat seals, offering them mackerel would be akin to going to the Chinese restaurant looking for a pizza.
You could bait the hooks with seals, but seals- like Great White Sharks- are a protected species. You already have to deal with the tree huggers to kill Great White Sharks... imagine the reaction when you say "We also have to kill a protected species to bait the hooks to kill another protected species." Remember, they shut beaches down here when a Piping Plover lays eggs in a dune.
Seals, which I again point out are protected, exist in far greater numbers than sharks do here. They eat the same diet as sharks do... minus, of course, seal meat. A seal is more likely to end up hooked than a shark is if you bait the hook with mackerel or haddock or whatever. You might slaughter 500 seals for each Great White Shark you manage to snare. An Australian hook program, which we''ll get to soon enough, reported bycatch of whales, sea turtles and dolphins.
Speaking of seals, they are the favorite meal of the sharks. If you drive the sharks away, you have an unchecked seal population. They rut like sea bunnies, too. Cape Cod fishermen don't mind sharks, but they hate seals. With no sharks, the Cape Cod fisherman will suddenly become the seal's apex predator.
That said... when we had a seal bounty (up until the 1960s on Cape Cod), it drove off all of the seals, and no one even saw a non-Basking shark near the shore in these parts. Sharks weren't very prominent here before the bounty, so remember to balance all the numbers properly.
West Island, Fairhaven |
Western Australia, after a series of attacks on surfers, enacted a shark cull. They used the same baited drumline approach Beaty is proposing. They did so from 2012 through 2016, when a new government discontinued the policy.
Queensland has been using drumlines since 1962, and has had one shark attack death since. They had 27 between 1919 and 1961. South Africa had 3 non-fatal shark attacks at controlled beaches, and
The Aussies anchored a floating barrel to the sea bed, and set a big baited hook in the middle. Fishermen would check the hooks, kill any large (3 meters and above) sharks and try to save any bycatch.
They paid X number of fishermen $610,000 (US) for 107 days of setting hooks and removing the catch. They spent an additional $20 million on mitigation and education measures.
During the first 3 weeks of the program, 65 sharks were caught. 75% of them were under 3 meters, and 20% of those were dead on the hook. The remainder were released with often grievous injury.
Media reaction was intense. The video of the shooting of a Tiger Shark unleashed a storm of protest. Rumors arose later that the drumline had also killed a dolphin, and the fishing boat in question had a large sea creature under a tarp.
Amid large protests, the program was not kept alive for 2017.
Orleans |
Brazil has also enacted the drumline strategy. Here's the bycatch, in both numbers and percentage of survival:
Spotted eagle ray - 4 - 100%
Marine catfish - 244 - 75%
Blacknose shark - 26 - 12%
Marine turtles - 4 - 100%
Barred grunt - 3 - 67%
Sting rays - 14 - 93%
Goliath grouper - 13- 100%
Nurse shark - 130 - 99%
Moray eels - 11 - 19%
Snappers - 6 -67%
Devil rays - 6 - 50%
Brazilian sharpnose shark - 1 - 0%
During the same period 38 potentially aggressive sharks were also hooked, including tiger sharks (34) and bull sharks (4). The overall survival rate of potentially aggressive sharks was 70% (relocated and released).
Shark attacks went down by 97% after the drumlines were set, although shark attack numbers vary wildly year-to-year. Many critics cite that people will avoid shark-infested waters once they are made known to the public, and that's what drove the numbers down.
Hyannis Port |
Beaty, one should know, appears to be somewhat out of his mind.
He is often mentioned as an example when people discuss voters just checking whatever name is next to the "R" or the "D" on a ballot. He has been referred to as a "lunatic" by another local pol. He has served time in a federal prison for threatening President Bush, which is unusual for a Republican.
There's a real chance that his proposal will be laughed out of court, as the lawyers say.
Will people still be laughing when some child gets Mack The Knifed in the surf, taking our tourist economy with him?
People's reactions tend to be ugly with shark attack deaths, especially if their economy can be destroyed by them. Judging by things like King Phillip's War, Massachusetts has an ethic of Abject Slaughter when confronted by a deadly threat, even if the threat is minimal. We've slaughtered seals before, to the extent of driving them away for decades. Sharks are like seals, in that they can annihilate an area of our economy, and they aren't like seals, in that they can devour human beings.
Cape Cod's mood could turn very sour if a shark attack happened. They would be ripe for a brutal plan like the one offered by Beaty. This column hopes that a less cruel solution can be worked out.
Thumpertown Beach |
Friday, August 18, 2017
Harboring: Somerset
We have been visiting local harbors for our Harboring series, and today we visit Somerset. |
Somerset has a lotta watta around it. They're posted up on Mount Hope Bay, and own considerable property along both the Lee and Taunton Rivers. |
We popped in on the Somerset Marina, which is tucked in a little nook off of the upper Taunton River. Riverside Avenue, to be exact. Skies, as you can see, were threatening. |
Somerset is a smaller marina, and it is private. This kept me from going down and snooping among the boats. Hence, distance shots. |
The dock looked a bit rickety anyhow, although rickety is cool for photographers standing over dry land. |
The one on the left looks like Mick Jagger. |
The PD and FD have to share a boat, but it is a small harbor... and you only have to cross a river. They don't really need big huge rescue boats. |
See? |
That rain was coming soon, so we got ghost. Thanks for having us, Somerset! |
Where To Get A Filter Lens To View The Eclipse
I'm not bugging clerks anymore, because I remembered the last eclipse in the 1990s. I was working at a factory then (CDF, in Plymouth), and I just borrowed the mechanic guy's welding mask. With that in mind, I did some Google and found a nearby welding supply shop. Boom... $6 and change for 3 lenses. You need at least Shade 12 for viewing the eclipse safely. Shade 14 is better, but it costs more and is a bit of a pain to find. Made In China, but sold in America. I got mine at New Bedford Welding Supply. They had a bunch, right at the desk. They know what you're talking about, so you don't need to know any real-man welding talk. They also have a shop in Taunton, and perhaps even Smithfield, RI. Other shops include Total Welding Supply in Freetown and Brockton, Standard Repair Welding Supply in Wareham and Plymouth, the Airgas Store in a bunch (Hingham, Dorchester, Seekonk, Hyannis, Stoughton, Rochester, Brockton, North Attleboro) of places... Google it up, you'll do OK. |
Enjoy! |
The Three Sisters Of Nauset
Meet the Three Sisters Of Nauset. |
The sisters are decommissioned lighthouses in Massachusetts. Their predecessors went up in 1837, costing $10,000 combined. They were set up as a trio to help sailors distinguish them from the single light of Cape Cod Lighthouse (now Highland Light) in Truro and the double light at the Twin Lights in Chatham. They were spaced 46 meters apart. They got the Three Sisters name because sailors thought that- from sea- they looked like little ladies with white dresses and black bonnets. Remember, these dudes had been at sea for a while. The eroding sands of Nauset brought the lighthouses to the edge of the cliff by 1890. It was impossible to move them, so replicas (the current sisters) were built 30 feet back. The original lighthouses were allowed to fall into the sea. Erosion continued, and the northernmost light was 8 feet from the cliff by 1911. The center light was the only one lit- flashing three times to honor her decommissioned sisters- and was known as The Beacon. The other sisters, with their lights removed and sold for $3.50 each, were joined by a room and made into a cottage/dance studio. The Beacon was replaced by one of the Twin Lights of Chatham in 1923. She also became a cottage. She has the honor of being replaced by Nauset Light, which was one of the Twin Lights of Chatham. It stands today as both a lighthouse and the Cape Cod Potato Chips logo. Of course I have a link. |
Take care, girls! |
Thursday, August 17, 2017
Stopping The Car: Freetown
I presume this was for watering the livestock. |
They built a whole gazebo around the old (1915) bell from the Methodist Church. It's bronze, FYI. |
The Freetown Historical Society website doesn't say who this house belongs to... but if you have a hide-and-shoot-Englishmen stone wall in front of your house, your house stands a chance of being in Cranberry County Magazine, hustler. |
Peak Foliage. |
The school looks like a church and the church looks like a school. |
Proof that the Algonquians had Guardians Of The Galaxy movies. |
The whole pole. |
This is either an arrow, or instructions to look up at the anthromorphic raccoon. |
Older readers will notice that the bird smokes Bogart style. |
You should always put a woman on a pedestal. |
Be careful with that axe, Eugene. |
He's no more or less friendly than the other one, but he is unarmed. |
Thanks for having us, Freetown! |
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Front Door vs Back Door With Waterfront Houses
We are here today to discuss matters of great importance. Specifically... on a beach house or even a lake house, is the front door of...
-
Sharks are an accepted hazard of Massachusetts coastal life. Living or vacationing at the beach is awesome, but you could get stuck in 10...
-
Humarock will be closed to revelers on July 3rd. Citing "historical" cycles of drinking and teen rabble-rousing, the Scituate se...
-
"Civilization ends at the waterline... after that, we all enter the food chain, and not always right at the top." Barnstable ...